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就像《欧博体育app下载》里那样，永无止境的存在, 我们从新闻中听说经济衰退即将来临. Analysts will point to an obscure chart that shows it’s coming; someone will then retort with a “correlation does not imply causation” kickback. We hear about this so much because it breeds fear; recessions can be catastrophic for businesses and consumers.

不过，有些类型的企业并不担心经济衰退, 因为他们实际上表现得很有弹性——如果不是很强的话. What are these recession-proof industries, and what characteristics have contributed to this luxury?

What are Recession-Proof Companies?

所有公司都追求增长和强劲的盈利, 无论他们的基础经济处于何种状况. Yet some fail, 因为他们对真正的客户忠诚度太天真了, product/service positioning, 和/或未能理解可能从其他地方渗透进来的传染. 四分之三的公司经历过危机 revenue decline 在经济衰退期间，14%的企业实现了收入和利润的增长.

Institutional investors class recession-proof stocks as “defensive”: businesses that have been proven to be resilient to economic shocks, the caveat being that their performance is not as stratospheric as others during better times. Goldman Sachs’ basket of defensive companies have returned 11% over the past year to September 2019, during which the S&P 500’s return has just been 1.9%.

To be recession-proof though, a business must either be providing something that is a high enough priority that even the most frugal consumer will still buy, or conversely, is one that sees demand rise due to the tough conditions that the economy is under.

The following chart tracks 2008/09年经济衰退期间不同行业的增长, where it’s clear to see that a number of industries mentioned performed strongly due to their recession-proof characteristics.

经济大衰退期间公司类型的表现(2008-09)

以下是一些具有抗衰退趋势的行业的例子. Pay specific attention, not to the product/service, 但它周围的行为建立了它的“防御”.”

Household Staples: Sustenance

The term “staples” is key here, as it’s referring to the basic, 我们日常生活中需要的营养品和个人卫生用品. 所以想想面包胜过鱼子酱，肥皂胜过晒黑.

An adult man and woman require 2,500 and 2,000 calories respectively, per day, to maintain their weight. 这一点在经济衰退期间不会改变, and companies that provide the basic staples of a diet will not be massively disrupted by it. Faced with a TAM 人口卡路里的上限，多年来，食品公司已经 reduced 他们食物的营养成分，以鼓励更多的零食, to counteract this ceiling.

当你观察消费品企业集团时，比如宝洁公司(Proctor) & Gamble or Unilever, their portfolio is stacked with household staples and brands that cater to various tiers of budgets. 这样的策略确保了它们有应对需求飙升的弹性, whereby during a recession their performance may oscillate between consumer preferences, 但仍保持整体销售水平.

同样的概念也适用于销售个人卫生用品的公司, or house, in addition to pet supply businesses.

传承奢侈品牌:受人尊敬的品质

奢侈品尽管价格高昂，但对经济衰退的抵抗力却惊人地强. 为具有世代经验和品牌底蕴的传承品牌服务, a recession can actually lead to more consumers switching to it due to their tastes becoming more discerning. A large component of the price of a luxury good is the intangible promise of quality, prestige, and long-lasting value. Luxury watches, for example, are promoted as heirlooms to be passed down through generations.

通货膨胀不一定与经济衰退同时发生, but during such times of inflation, 奢侈品需求上升是因为商品保值且不会贬值. Argentina is blighted by inflation; you see businesses 把每一分钱都花在高质量的库存上 建造巨大的跑道作为通货膨胀的优势. 这是因为他们购买的商品不会贬值.

Vices: Addictive Pleasures

The best way to describe what bonds this section together within an economic concept would be to group activities that are addictive. Addiction is inelastic, and as such, alcohol, nicotine, and gambling are pastimes that can weather economic storms. 你也可以把糖和咖啡因也归入这一类. 还有一个更抽象的观点, 上述活动可以是“逃逸”, 在经济困难时期，对忧心忡忡的消费者来说，什么是必要的安慰. 在2008年美国经济衰退期间，酒类销售 rose by 9%.

制造成瘾是一个禁忌话题, yet many businesses seek to create such a euphoria about their offerings with users in the hope of creating inelasticity. Internet businesses have ramped up consumer intelligence and behavior monitoring to very elaborate levels. You could look products like social media, the infinite scroll, and in-app purchases 在游戏中，这是一种创造上瘾忠诚度的方法.

Healthcare: Necessity

Businesses that focus on healthcare provision are generally stable concerns that will not be affected by recessions. This is due to the simple fact that health is a mortal matter that must be tended to and will take a spending priority over everything else.

这个部门可以适用许多子部门， resident care being one such example. Going forward, the aging demographics of the wealthy baby-boomer generation hitting retirement offers signs that healthcare spending will stay steady.

Budget Travel: Value

西南航空公司已经盈利了 45 years in a row. The effect of low-cost air carriers was to completely disrupt the concept of air travel, expanding its market reach to lower-income groups that before could not use air travel; in the 50 years to 2013 the cost of an airfare had reduced 50% in real terms.

Budget travel, 包括长途汽车吗, staycations, 公共交通是一个有弹性的部门. It performs strongly during upturns due to its necessity (those relatives can’t visit themselves) and value, 是什么培养了那些渴望节俭旅行的旅客的忠诚度，提高了他们的出行频率. 在经济低迷时期，由于其价格优势，它的受欢迎程度也会上升.

廉价航空公司的运营管理是其成功的关键, 因为他们的利润微薄，因此, 拥有高效和流线型的业务流程. 例如，爱尔兰共和国的瑞安航空公司就有一个 fleet of 419 airplanes除了一架飞机外，其余都是波音737-800. 通过只使用一种飞机模型，它保证了零件的安全, repairs, maintenance crews, 所有的必要程序都尽可能的简单.

Utilities: Protection

The infrastructure piping commodities into our lives is not the most glamorous of business areas but is one that can weather any kind of storm due to the necessity of its provisions. 在经济衰退期间，天然气、水、电和电话需求不会改变. These industries are also ones that gain a cloak of recession-proof protection from their linkage to government regulation, 哪个可以提供补贴或限制外部竞争.

抗衰退行业的未来

Defensive stocks have been falling as a percentage of the overall stock market constituents. 就在20世纪90年代初，他们占整个美国的40%左右&2018年，这一数字已降至16%以下.

Percentage of S&标普500指数类股:1990-2018年

这种变化有很多原因:

• The growth of technology companies since the mid 1990s have shifted large weights to what is a very cyclical sector.
• 公众投资者的短期目标设定, 通过投资周期性公司寻求更高的收益.
  • Growth of passive index investing which then favors these cyclical companies as their market caps rise.
• Private Equity funds favoring reliable, cash generative defensive stocks, and taking them off public markets.
• The end of “big” recessions? 自上世纪50年代以来，美国经济还没有出现过10%的季度收缩.

Going forward, it’s likely that the blend of industries mentioned in this article may change. When you look at demographic, travel, dietary, environmental attitudes, 以及过去几十年的个人健康趋势, it’s feasible to opine that new recession-proof industries will emerge as entrepreneurs capitalize upon their prospects.